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Catholic probabilism : ウィキペディア英語版
Catholic probabilism

In Catholic moral theology, probabilism provides a way of answering the question about what to do when one does not know what to do. Probabilism proposes that one can follow an authoritative opinion regarding whether an act may be performed morally, even though the opposite opinion is more probable. It was first formulated in 1577 by Bartholomew Medina, OP, who taught at Salamanca.〔James Franklin, ''The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal'', (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), 74–76; Charles Curran, ''The Origins of Moral Theology in the United States: Three Different Approaches'' (Georgetown University Press, 1997), 19–20.〕
==Formulation and opposed views==
Probabilism is one way of approaching difficult matters of conscience. In such cases, according to probabilism, one may safely follow a doctrine approved by a recognized Doctor of the Church, even if the opposite opinion is more probable as judged by other considerations, such as scientific considerations or many other recognized authoritative opinions.
A more radical view, "minus probabilissimus", holds that an action is permissible if a single opinion allowing that action is available, even if the overwhelming weight of opinion proscribes it. This view was advanced by the Spanish theologian Bartolomé de Medina (1527–1581) and defended by many Jesuits such as Luis Molina (1528–1581). It was heavily criticised by Blaise Pascal in his ''Provincial Letters'' as leading to moral laxity.
Opposed to probabilism are:
*probabiliorism (Latin ''probabilior'', "more likely"), which holds that when there is a preponderance of evidence on one side of a controversy one is obliged to follow that side
*tutiorism (Latin ''tutior'', "safer"), which holds that in case of doubt one must take the morally safer side

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